from Frankly Speaking
With the primaries all but over, the next question is who will be the running mates for Obama or Clinton, and John McCain.

The candidates will tell us that their Vice-Presidential running mate will be selected purely on the basis of who is most capable to assume the role of president. It’s the right thing to say.

But it’s a bunch of baloney. The selection, as always, will be based on strategy, mainly according to owed political favors and who can better help them get elected, qualifications be damned.

George Herbert Walker Bush certainly didn’t think Dan Quayle was the best man in the land to sit one heartbeat away from the Oval Office. He selected Quayle based on region, popularity polls and Quayle’s youth and good looks.

John F. Kennedy despised Lyndon Johnson, but it made political sense to bring on the man who came in second place at the convention, and who hailed from a southern state to, uh, balance the ticket.

Was Spiro Agnew the best Richard Nixon could do? Doubtful. Walter Mondale balanced Jimmy Carter’s deep south ticket by representing the northern mid-west. Eight years later, Mondale parlayed his presidential by selecting am eastern state woman (Rep. Geraldine Ferraro) for a running mate, hoping to garner the female vote. She had but four years experience in the House.

Of them all, Ronald Reagan seems to have selected a running mate based on experience and capacity to handle the job, That being George H.W. Bush.

It’s always been my belief that Dick Cheney was predetermined for our current president by the Republican power structure long before the nomination process was over in 2000. Cheney was selected, in my opinion, to be the strength behind the president.

In this coming election, I believe we will see a new criteria. Ethnicity, race and gender will play a bigger role than what region of the country he or she lives in. Experience and capability will likely play a secondary role to election strategy.

If Hillary becomes the Democratic nominee, she’ll want to counter McCain’s southwest appeal, by selecting an Hispanic male from the same region. It would be suicide to pick another female. My guess: Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, who is half Spanish and does bring a host of experience to the ticket.

If Barack Obama becomes the nominee, he’ll certainly select a left wing liberal, but he’ll be ever careful of not selecting another ethnic minority. Strategically, that would be too risky. He certainly has the black vote. A woman, especially one from the same state as his Republican opponent would make sense, especially after defeating a woman, thus I predict Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona would be on Obama’s ticket. After all, she did endorse him over Hillary.

Then, there’s Senator John McCain. It all depends on the Hillary versus Barack outcome. If he runs against Hillary, I think he’ll select a conservative woman, much like Christine Todd Whitman, former governor of New Jersey. Or Senator Elizabeth Dole, from North Carolina, popular wife of war hero and Senator, Bob Dole.

If he is opposed by Barack Obama, I would expect him to search for a dynamic black to counter the minority vote, such as Colin Powell, who always said he would not run for president. However, he never said anything about not running for Vice-President. Condi Rice is another possibility, but I think the two of them were at odds concerning the Iraq war. Minorities aside, looking east to New York state where popular ex-governor, George Pataki would make a lot of sense.

Let’s just hope, whoever becomes the next Vice-President, he or she is fully able to handle the job. Considering some of the past choices, it’s cause for worry.

What say you?

Kain's major subjects of focus at NeoConstant are international strategy; support of Israel; the failure of the international community to stop genocide; the spread of American power and democracy; historical analysis; and current events both domestically and abroad. He writes here, Newsvine and his blog, IndiePundit.