South Ossetia Crisis: What Do We Do About Russia Now?
Aug 16th, 2008 | By Scott Isaacs | Category: Foreign AffairsRussia has succeeded in capturing South Ossetia and manufacturing a pretext for the attack: the supposed “defense” of the province from the power-hungry Georgians. Now that Russia has South Ossetia in its grasp and it has acquired a launchpad on the Georgian side of the Caucasus Mountains, it will move to bring Georgia’s days of independence to an end. If Georgia doesn’t play along, the Russians have already shown that they can charge forward to Gori and cut the country’s road and rail transports in half, leaving western Georgia disconnected from the capital of Tbilisi in the east. Russia can now station thousands more troops in South Ossetia than were there for the supposed “peacekeeping” mission and they can have much heavier weapons since they aren’t meant to be peacekeeping troops any longer.
The United States needs to take swift, decisive action to prevent Georgia from being cut down like a tree by Russia. We chose not to intervene while Russia was defeating Georgia militarily and killing its civilians which was, in my estimation, a mistake since it is always more difficult to eject a party from an area than it is to keep them out in the first place. The United States’ best (and perhaps only logical) option now is to increase the number of American troops in Georgia significantly. Russia has already shown its hand by raiding Gori: that will be their first destination when they try to undermine the current Georgian government. Therefore, the United States should station a significant number of troops in and around Gori as well as stationing more troops in Tbilisi. It would be wise to sprinkle more troop contingents throughout Georgia near possible targets of the Russian military but the largest numbers should remain in Gori and Tbilisi.
These American troops are going to serve a very important function for continued Georgian independence. They considerably raise the price of a potential attack by hostile Russian forces. By intermixing American troops with Georgian troops, Russia will have to carefully consider any attack on Georgia because if they kill American troops then they will either have to withdraw from Georgia under international pressure or face the brunt of an American retaliation against the Russian forces that would be invading Georgia to destabilize it. This is a tactic that has been used many times in military history: utilizing human shields. Many times the human shields were hostages from the enemy that were important people because they would think twice before possibly killing them unintentionally in an attack. In this situation, however, our troops will be acting as a foot in the door preventing it from shutting on Georgian independence as well as one of our few footholds close to Russia. If our troops are killed by Russian forces perpetrating an attack on Georgia that gives us a legitimate right of unlimited retaliation including an unremitting air campaign to assist Georgian ground forces in not only pushing the Russians back but also driving them out of South Ossetia and into North Ossetia.
Some may be saying that it is foolish to antagonize Russia over a small country such as Georgia. I disagree. Georgia is an American ally and that should mean something. Russia’s attack on Georgia is a slap in the face to America. They know that Georgia is our ally and they dare us to do anything to stop them from overrunning the entire country. Today it may be Georgia but if we do not extract a price from the Russians for attacking one of our allies, the next time the attack will be more bold. The next time it won’t be an attempt to kill the leader of Ukraine. The next time it will be a military strike on Ukraine to bring it back under Russia’s yoke as a satellite country.
Russia has made great amounts of money from its oil and it has used that money to rebuild and vastly improve its military. History shows us that armies are not built for peace; they are built for war. Vladimir Putin has bent the government in Russia to his will and ensconced himself as the leader of Russia in perpetuity. There was a time 70 years ago when an autocratic leader overseas acted belligerently and demanded territorial concessions based on questionable ethnic ties. The major powers foolishly thought that giving up this land would quench his thirst for conquest and bring peace. Instead, it only whetted his appetite for war and convinced him that the other powers were gullible and could be defeated by a concerted attack. The leader was Hitler, the territory was the Sudetenland and the small country that the major powers sacrificed on the altar of peace was Czechoslovakia. The Sudetenland contained most of Czechoslovakia’s industrial and military might so when Czechoslovakia was forced to cede it to Germany it was left nearly defenseless against the later onslaught by Germany. If the West sacrifices Georgia in the misguided hope of “peace” with Russia and not starting any trouble, it does so at its own peril. The West has seen what appeasement does to the countries that lay down at the feet of the bully. We would do well to remember the principle lesson from the Munich Agreement: “Peace” kills.
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I'm a freelance writer from Hamilton, Ohio whose interests lie in history, military science, investing, and politics among other things.
Call the Marines! This is the most insane recipe for starting WWIII that I ever read. Any attack action on our side is limited by the simple fact that Russia has nuclear weapons. With Russia outgunned by NATO by the factor of 5:1 or more, they will be forced to quickly resort to nukes once an inevitable shootout starts caused by, say, a drunk Georgian soldier.
Imagine now that Tbilisi is already destroyed by a limited nuclear strike and you are an American president. You have to decide, whether a possible destruction of Chicago in a second strike is a fitting price to pay for a first strike on Russia. What would be your words? Most likely, “how on Earth did we manage to get here?”. That’s why the military response is our of question and even the insanely war-mongering McCain does not suggest to send in the troops.
Your suggestion is based on a wrong assumption that Russians will simply retreat in the face of a superior force. Please read the history books first.
You’ve already called the marines. Russia finds your dead marines all over the place in Georgia. Look here for instance: http://www.russia.ru/report/osetia/?691
Russians were outnumbered against 37,000 US and NATO trained Georgian troops and 100,000 conscripts. Russians only had 800 lightly armed peacekeepers first, then increased their troops to about 12,000 with overwhelming airpower. US loast about $5 billion, most of its prestige and some dead marines.
So, more marines are welcome to join those, but I don’t think Russia needs to resort to nukes, they will all be dead pretty quickly.
The problem is that the whole crisis in Georgia could have been so easily avoided. There has been a lot of speculation on blogs that I read that Russia was really ticked off with us for recognising Kosovo’s independence. To be honest, I can’t say I really blame them for getting angry about that. As much as I love America, it was definitely the wrong thing to do. I’m not saying that Russia is perfect or always in the right, because I do believe they were wrong to do what they did in Georgia. But America is not totally blameless either: we can’t afford NOT to be allies with Russia if we want to win the war we are currently in. We don’t need a war with Russia–we need their cooperation.
What we could do to salvage the whole situation would be to not recognise Kosovo’s independence anymore and make a deal with Russia involving this, something to the extent that we stop antagonising them and they stop supplying Iran and company with arms. Of course, our government won’t do that. But it’s, in my opinion, the best we could do.
You Russians are behaving exactly like the Germans we saved you from in the 1940’s. You remember, the ones who were on the outskirts of Moscow in December 1941. Just like you, they had a bad case of “short man’s disease” and thought they were invincible. Don’t make us take you to the woodshed. We are more than capable of doing it with the assistance of the free world, since you’ve so conveniently exposed your true Stalinist tendencies.
Natalie,
The Kosovo deal, whether for good or ill (and I’m sitting on the fence there) is a moot point now. It’s done, and there’s no setting back the clock.
True, we do need to be on as friendly as terms as possible with Russia. How to achieve this, though? I think Russia respects strength, and I think we need to show it now, by letting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO.
I also think we need to put pressure on the Putin government to free up their economy and become more transparent. Russia could be a fantastic ally, but under Putin, while they’ve become stronger, they have also drifted more toward totalitarianism and further away from freedom. The Russian people could use a bit of freedom someday….
Russia is not Germany, Ivan has never been Hanz. My question, tucked neatly in a metaphor, is this, Ivan: Are you playing Kasparov, or Fischer?
It’s a terrifyingly legitimate question. If you’re reading this and you have a good brain, a sharp, Department of Defence-type brain in your head, then you should be able to take the situation from both points ~ meaning, play it from the American Think Tank side: If America doesn’t respond, it undermines the integrity of the NATO umbrella, Eastern Europe and therefore Europe, whether through the defensive militarization of the EU or through a sheer prestige hit to our Soft Power.
Now, switch: Pretend you’re a Russian Think-Tank.
You know that Washington has to respond. You play this hand because you want that response. How else mobilize a disaffected Russian populace and increase your influence, both internally and externally? You need a defined Enemy worthy of the name.
Now, switch: You know that the Russians know you have to respond and that, morever, this is what they want. You’re determined not to feed into it exactly how they’d like you to, but hostility is hostility, and the one certain thing now is that Russia is coming at you from the side.
Now switch.
Now switch.
Switch.
You know that I know that you know that I know.
Switch.
Switch.
Is there any variation of this chess board where most of the pieces don’t end up dead?
Sinc,
David K. Spencer
David,
Nice brain-teaser.
Let me get back to you on it. It’s late and my brain can’t handle being teased at the moment…
Cheeers
Whatever the precise sequence of events, however, nothing Saakashvili did provided a reason for Putin to invade Georgia proper; or to bomb Georgian targets in the days after the initial ceasefire; or to charge Saakashvili with crimes against humanity; or to attempt regime change in a democracy that abides by international norms and seeks integration in the liberal international order. Nothing.
Nor is it true that the ultimate blame for this conflict lies with the United States and its NATO and EU allies. It is true that these nations and alliances encourage democratic governance, free markets, and the promotion of human rights in all countries, including those in Russia’s near abroad. And it may well be that Russia sees many of the independent states on its borders, so long under its hegemony, moving in a liberal direction. But why does Russia feel threatened by this? And what say ought Russia to have over the decisions of other governments to choose freedom and prosperity?
No one forced Georgia or Ukraine or Poland or Latvia or Lithuania or Estonia to move toward Europe and the United States. The elected leaders of those countries decided for themselves. And they made that decision partly because they understand the distinctions between dominance and submission, freedom and slavery, prosperity and penury, aggression and comity. They lived those distinctions. Is it too much to ask that we learn from our friends, and call a culprit a culprit and a victim a victim?
courtneyme109s last blog post..AQ Lost Another Cat
David,
Looks like switch is engaged.Consider Russia could have blitzed all of Russia by Monday. Last Monday. So why the crawl? If Georgia’s sweet spot is the spot where the all weather East West highway, RailRoad and pipeline hook up - then why isn’t the army’s HQ on or near that site?
Something got Russia attention. Was it the near abroad states that hooked up in Tblisi the other day? All former Warsaw Pact vassels that stood in solidarity with Georgia? Maybe Dr Rice pulled an old school anti Kremlin play out of her playbook?
Also Russia used 2 airbourne divisions ( think reinforced brigades in NATO numbers) by truck to get to Georgia! Paratroopers riding into battle in trucks! Perhaps Georgia’s air defense systems have been magically enhanced. Or maybe Great Satan’s 4 carrier group in Arabian sea is well within reach to provide a combat air patrol over Georgia. Incirlik AB and landing fields in Iraq certrainly have the range.
America, the EU and NATO are not helpless - and as time moves on Russia will pay a heavy pennance for this.
courtneyme109s last blog post..AQ Lost Another Cat
Excellent points, Courtney. Certainly there was no cause for this overblown reaction from Russia–unless it was too test US and NATO resolve, or to send a message to other neighbors that they would face similar barbarism should they attempt to move toward democracy, capitalism, etc.
No one forced Georgia or Ukraine or Poland or Latvia or Lithuania or Estonia to move toward Europe and the United States. The elected leaders of those countries decided for themselves. And they made that decision partly because they understand the distinctions between dominance and submission, freedom and slavery, prosperity and penury, aggression and comity. They lived those distinctions. Is it too much to ask that we learn from our friends, and call a culprit a culprit and a victim a victim?
Very eloquently spoken. It is so true that the nations so recently under the yoke of Soviet dominance are now those standing bravely beside Georgia, while many in Old Europe and even America are apologizing for Russian action.
There is no easy answer to this, and much time could be spent talking of things that could have been done, if only….
So now it’s time to make those steps. Let’s get Georgia into NATO. Let’s get that missile defense system built in Poland, and woe to Russia if they strike. Europe should seriously start moving toward inclusion of more Eastern European nations into the EU.
As you said:
America, the EU and NATO are not helpless - and as time moves on Russia will pay a heavy pennance for this.